Links to Other Blog: Feb 19, 2020

Here are links to a couple of recent posts on the ongoing Coronavirus outbreak in China.

An Unusual Observation about Ongoing Coronavirus Outbreak in China

In my opinion, the most likely explanation is as follows: there are far more milder infections in Wuhan than have been acknowledged. Imagine that only 1 in 10 or 20 patients have symptoms bad enough to seek medical attention. Now this will result in a 10-20 fold concentration of the worst cases in hospitals. If the infection has a death rate of 0.5%. and only the most ill 10% seek medical attention, the recorded mortality rate at hospitals will immediately jump from 0.5% to 5%. It is therefore likely that, over the next few weeks, we will find out that majority of infections caused by 2019-nCov are mild or asymptomatic and only a small percentage get ill enough to seek medical attention. Not sure if this soothes existing worries, creates new ones or both.

More Observations about the Ongoing Coronavirus Outbreak in China

To summarize, I am even more convinced that 2019-nCov causes only a mildly symptomatic to asymptomatic infection in most people infected by it. This is why the number of those infected was so large before the virus was initially identified. Since older and very ill patients were highly represented among those who ended up in hospitals at beginning of this outbreak, the mortality rate initially seemed much higher than it turned out. To be clear, 2019-nCov is definitely a bigger problem than your average influenza strain- but, as things stand today, it is not the apocalyptic epidemic which many idiots were hoping for. Based on what we know about microbial evolution, this virus will most likely evolve into even less lethal version- eventually approaching the level of an average Influenza A strain.

Enjoy!

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